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October saw a surprising change in financial correlations, notably among Bitcoin, gold, and major stock indices such as the NASDAQ and S&P 500.

Prompted by the Hamas attack on Israel, the month bore witness to significant market shifts. Notably, major U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq exhibited a declining trend, indicative of the mounting geopolitical concerns. This was in contrast to Bitcoin’s previous trend, which had closely mirrored these stock indices. However, this changed in October as Bitcoin’s correlation with the indices decreased.

Meanwhile, gold and cryptocurrencies, often considered safe harbors in tumultuous times, experienced an uptick, with their correlation becoming more pronounced.

Analyzing Asset Dynamics:

Equities in October: U.S. stock indices, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, underwent fluctuations, impacted by geopolitical events and pivotal economic data. For instance, the S&P 500 saw a decline of 1.4% and the Nasdaq by 1.9% on Oct. 3, influenced by an unfavorable job openings report. Further, the Israel-Palestine conflict added to the NASDAQ’s drop, settling at 12,595 by Oct. 26. Significantly, the top seven tech stocks, referred to as the “S&P 7,” shed a staggering $500 billion in value from July, marking a potential shift in the market trajectory. Additionally, there’s keen anticipation around the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming steps, with rate cuts expected in June 2024 but potential hikes in January 2024 still on the cards.

Gold’s October Journey: Gold’s October performance fluctuated based on global events and economic signals. While it hit a seven-month low on Oct. 3, largely due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, the escalating Middle East tensions gave it a boost. A significant jump from $1848 to $2000 throughout October highlighted gold’s resilience amidst an evolving financial environment.

Crypto’s Stance: Bitcoin marked a significant moment with its rise to $35,150 on Oct. 26. Despite the broader economic volatility, Bitcoin maintained stability around the $34,000-$34,500 mark post its peak. The overall crypto market also garnered attention, achieving a valuation of $1.28 trillion.

Changing Market Correlations: A notable shift was observed in Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P and NASDAQ. While in August, Bitcoin’s movements were positively correlated with these indices (0.72 and 0.71, respectively), by October, this correlation turned negative (-0.69 and -0.74).

Conversely, Bitcoin and gold’s correlation transitioned from a negative -0.74 at the start of October to a positive 0.7 by its end, suggesting that both were increasingly seen as alternative assets amidst market uncertainty.

Market Implications: These evolving inter-asset relationships signify that the financial domain is in a state of flux. Recent events highlight that cryptocurrencies might not always mirror traditional stock responses to global happenings. While Bitcoin and gold currently exhibit similar trends, the opposite is true for traditional stock indices and Bitcoin.

For investors, this underscores the importance of vigilance, staying updated, and cautious decision-making. Diversifying assets in one’s portfolio and preparing for unforeseen market shifts is advisable. When making pivotal financial decisions, it’s prudent to seek professional advice.

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